PREDICT-ViS
Enhancing Victim Safety through risk PREDICTions and intimate partner VIolence againSt women intervention evaluation
PREDICT-ViS is an active project (2025–2029). It aims to strengthen the effectiveness, accountability and risk management of perpetrator programmes addressing intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW) in Spain. The project responds to existing variability in programme design, risk assessment practices and outcome evaluation, as well as to the limited systematic evidence on what works to reduce recidivism and enhance victim safety.
The project adopts a comprehensive, multi-phase and longitudinal approach. It maps and analyses perpetrator programmes across Spanish regions, implements a standardised outcome monitoring framework using validated assessment tools, and conducts longitudinal analyses to evaluate recidivism and the predictive accuracy of risk assessment instruments. In parallel, it enhances professional capacity through specialised training and collaborative workshops, promoting harmonised, evidence-based standards across judicial and community settings.
Why it matters — PREDICT-ViS
Victim safety depends not only on responding to violence, but on effectively preventing reoffending. While perpetrator programmes are widely implemented, there is limited evidence on which models, practices and risk assessment tools most effectively reduce recidivism. Without rigorous evaluation and predictive accuracy, interventions may lack accountability and consistency.
By integrating outcome evaluation, risk prediction and professional training, PREDICT-ViS strengthens the quality and reliability of perpetrator interventions. It supports data-driven decision-making, improves coordination across systems, and ultimately contributes to reducing repeat violence and enhancing the safety of women affected by intimate partner violence.
Core Objectives
- Assess the outcome of programmes for perpetrators of IPVAW in a contextualised manner.
- Increase professionals’ capacity to conduct evidence-based interventions and risk assessment.
- Examine the variation in the methodologies used for risk assessment and prediction of recidivism in Spain, and their predictive power.
Key Actions
- Mapping and comparative analysis of perpetrator programmes across Spanish regions, identifying variability in programme structures, implementation practices and risk assessment methodologies.
- Implementation of a standardised and longitudinal outcome evaluation framework, integrating validated psychometric tools and recidivism indicators.
- Collection and analysis of official recidivism data through collaboration with national security bodies to assess the long-term predictive validity of risk assessment tools.
- Advanced statistical modelling (including Cox regression survival analysis) to identify key predictors of recidivism and positive programme outcomes.
- Specialised training for probation and community professionals on evidence-based outcome assessment, risk evaluation and data collection procedures.
- Development of best-practice guidelines, Spanish Standards for Perpetrator Programmes, and structured collaboration protocols between perpetrator programmes and victim services.
- National and European dissemination activities, including professional capacity-building sessions, webinars, scientific publications, policy briefs and public awareness materials targeting boys and men.
Partners
University of Jyväskylä
Finland
WWP EN – European Network for the Work with Perpetrators of Domestic Violence
Germany
University of Bristol
United Kingdom
Instituto de Reintegración Social de Euskadi (IRSE-EBI)
Spain
Universitat de València
Spain